The next global oil crisis

The next global oil crisis



The # 96 of War and Peace (February 2003) has dealt extensively with the problem of resources and oil supplies, in reference to the Iraq crisis: however, in the opinion of the writer, the setting is still lacking, and does not provide all the criteria necessary to realize the size and urgency of the problem (undoubtedly complex). The most common point of view among the public, in fact - that has established itself over the past decades mainly by multinationals in the sector, supported as always by the servile alignment of the organs of (mis) information - focuses attention on the counting of reserves oil and natural gas existing in the world, those found, the probable and the possible (and especially on the last two categories are many possible hoaxes), and concludes that they are sufficient for many decades. This also seems to be the interpretation of Monthly Review ("U.S. imperial ambitions", G & P, 96, p. 5-8) and Middle East Report ("In the shadow of war", G & P, n. 96 pp. 11-13), who insist on precisely control the reserves, energy security, oil hegemony and the "advanced military presence" of the U.S.: the demand for oil will grow, and should be strenuously defended the interests of the US-led multinational . In this context, the oil would be the "next big thing" (Gustavo Castro Soto, "The struggle for resources", G & P, 96, p. 29-32). There seems frankly an interpretation, at least in part, and reductive to secure hegemony in the future it'll take 100 or perhaps $ 200 billion to occupy Iraq.
In fact it is making its way for a long time a very different approach to the problem, now shooting even by authoritative bodies such as Scientific American, Science, Nature, the International Energy Agency at the G8 summit in Moscow in 1998, but singularly absent on all organs of (mis) information from our own: this is not surprising. Unfortunately, there is a lag of our "left" in adopting a theme that could have a significant landmark in determining the future of industrialized society and the relationships and global strategies: according to this approach, in fact, the problem of oil and natural gas would be much more dramatic and literally catastrophic.
The "peak oil" is next

This view is not based on the counting of stocks, but with the time trend in the rate of extraction, ie the number of barrels of oil (this term also referring to natural gas) that can be extracted annually: the "oil crisis "becomes much more dramatic and close. This analysis goes back almost half a century ago, when the U.S. geologist MK Hubbert, a researcher at Shell in 1956 predicted that the rate of oil extraction in the area known as US-48 (the territory of the United States excluding Alaska and Hawaii) , which was growing, he reached a maximum in 1970 and then he would begin to decline rapidly and inexorably. Hubbert was ridiculed, but this peak actually occurred in 1971 (Fig. 1): one can see that the extraction of oil in the U.S. is plummeting and that in a few years the country will depend entirely on imports.
Extending the analysis of Hubbert's oil and natural gas on the planet leads precisely to the dramatic consequences that we said. This analysis is based on the fact that when you take advantage of a well, or a field, or area of ​​oil, beginning the extraction rate increases rapidly, but reaches a maximum when the size of the field is reduced to about half, and then begins to decrease rapidly (fig. 2): this depends on the very simple fact that initially we extract the oil most superficial and rich, with a minor contribution of complex and technical resources of energy, but then the oil is gradually more and more difficult to extract, its extraction is more expensive and requires more technical and more energy. This latter factor becomes crucial in the end, since a threshold is reached - when the reservoir still contains between 20 and 40% of its reserve - in which the energy required to extract the oil is greater than the energy that it contains: at this point, clearly, is no longer convenient to extract the oil, even if you sell a thousand dollars a barrel! It should be noted that this trend was regularly checked for oil and natural gas known and exploited by a sufficient time.
This analysis has been extended to all the world's reserves and was conducted taking into account all factors. For example, we often speak of the oil deposits that remain to be discovered, but the pace of discovery of new oil fields peaked in 1965, natural gas shortly after, then both are rapidly decreased, and the balance with respect to consumption became negative and growing since 1980 for oil and gas since 1990 (Fig. 3: Note that it is difficult now to expect in this sense of the "miracles", given the technical and scientific methods that have been used for this purpose) ; and the difference between the new oil is discovered and what is consumed, which was initially positive, became negative and steadily increases inexorably.
The next order of '"oil economy"

Well, the conclusion of this analysis is chilling. Taking into account all of the world's reserves, analyzing separately by the method of Hubbert all the oil areas of the planet, their nature and their future prospects, the conclusion is that the rate of extraction of oil will reach a maximum around the end of this decade , and then begin to decrease (fig. 4): and from 2050 will be reduced approximately to half of the current one! For natural gas, the trend is similar, peak extraction is simply moved forward of 10-20 years (Fig. 5), but the decrease is inexorable next (i). An objection that is often raised is that there are huge deposits of "unconventional oil" (sands and oil shale. Heavy hydrocarbons or in deep water), the exploitation of which, however, is problematic not only from the technological point of view, but more importantly, once again, for the energy yield.
One to which we would be faced, then, are not so much (or only) gigantic interests, a struggle for supremacy in the oil industry, but the very survival of industrial society, of '"oil economy". It should be noted that the degree of dependence of these companies on oil is around 80%. All this is compounded by the fact that, as also recall the articles cited by G & P, it also provides a huge increase in global demand for these fossil fuels, according to the latest "Annual Energy Outlook" of the U.S. Department of Energy, 61% over the next 25 years, when in fact it already extract less oil annually than it is today.
These bleak prospects have been hidden by any means by the oil companies, but today their evidence inevitably begins to make inroads: August 25, 2002, Shell admitted in a statement to The Sunday Times that "We could see oil shortage in 2025."
There is a further conclusion that complicates the picture and explains the crucial importance of the Middle East. In fact, the rate of extraction of oil in non-OPEC countries (which until now has been higher than production OPEC) has already arrived at the most in recent years and will begin to decline, to be overcome by the production of OPEC countries around 2007 . recall that OPEC (founded in 1960) currently includes the following countries: Algeria, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Venezuela (Ecuador and Gabon have come out).
Until the last drop

In this context, we understand much better the stubbornness of the U.S. in wanting to launch this war, it cost a thousand billion dollars, and redraw the political map and the structure of the Middle East. There is no doubt that the objectives of this war, and all the strategy put in place by Washington after the collapse of the USSR with the colossal military expenditures related, are many: the need for supremacy and hegemony in the world, instances and blackmail of the military-industrial system, the support of the domestic economy, the weakening of the division of Europe and (ii) the barrage of China, the marginalization of Russia, the giant and usually concealed interests in the international market drugs, one of the largest turnovers worldwide (iii). The problem of energy supplies, however, becomes vital, not only to manage the huge interest in the future, but for the very survival of this system: after all, all of these goals, far from being contradictory, complement each other. I would even say that George W. Bush, from his point of view, can not do anything else! Washington managed to beat the Kyoto Protocol; stated that he does not want (or can not) slow down their locomotive at nothing; which admits of no environmental problem, humanitarian, global that can even remotely hinder it. America will continue as it is now, or worse, at all costs, in spite of everything and everybody: if need be, "Die Samson and all the Philistines."
But soon there will be no oil for everyone, and it is vital to establish an absolute global hegemony, militarily occupy the strategic regions and grab all the oil that will be extracted to the last drop. On these bases is part of the whole Washington politics of the 90s: the extension of its hegemony over the Caucasus and the former Soviet republics of Central Asia (GR Capisani, "Uzbekistan Stars and Stripes" G & P, n. 86 p 17. Lodovisi A., "Poverty endless, G & P, n. 95, p.9) and the occupation of its corridor of Afghanistan (G. Monbiot," Dreaming of a pipeline, "and F. Schlosser," conquering the oil Eldorado ", G & P, n. 85, p. 25, 26), because the target after Iraq is Iran, its policy in Latin America, its penetration, although for now the most discreet, Africa (C. Jampaglia, "Africa will change", G & P, n. 91, p. 14).
What exactly is not clear, however, is Europe: possible that our leaders do not understand that they can not stay indefinitely in the shade, and the service of the powerful ally today, that when the raft there will be no place all will be thrown overboard without ceremony, too? As they say ... there are or do they do?
We are truly in the hands of a group of thieves, rogues, unscrupulous businessmen who hold the destinies of the world and humanity. Because "another world is possible" is absolutely necessary to change, and soon, the pattern of production and consumption, the concepts of well-being and development: l '"oil economy" is no longer sustainable. Many would be problems related to the "peak oil" that should be addressed (the alternative energy, CO2 emissions, especially if it will increase the use of coal, the concomitant environmental crises), but here, we needed to put above the central problem in relation to the crisis in Iraq and the Middle East.
sources

A Di Fazio, "Issues Military Strategy, UN negotiations and the energy problem", in: Women of Science and Scientist against the war, against the New Wars (edited by M. Zucchetti), Odradek, 2000.
KS Deffeyes, Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, Princeton University Press, 2001.
CA Campbell and JH Laherre, "The end of cheap oil", Scientific American, March 1998, p. 78.
CB Hatfield, "Oil back on the global agenda," Nature, Vol 387, 05.08.1997, p. 121.
RA Kerr, "The next oil crisis looms large, and Perhaps Close," Science, Vol 281, p. 1128 (1998).
Report of the International Energy Agency (technical-scientific advisory body of the OECD), the G8 summit in Moscow in 1998.
There are many websites where you examine this issue and related issues. The ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil) publishes a monthly update, with specific analysis of the various areas. Other sites: Hubbert Peak of Oil Production; The Coming Global Oil Crisis. Authoritative recent reports: Oil & Gas Situation.
Notes

the. If anybody remain skeptical of the preceding considerations, similar conclusions can also be obtained with more intuitive reasoning, as follows. Currently, the total oil that remains to be discovered is estimated around 163 GB (Giga-barrel = one billion barrels), and provides an annual increase of extraction rate of 6 Gb / year; while the total reserves proved and probable evaluating around 821 Gb and those possible at 150 Gb, and together provide the rate of extraction current of 23 Gb / year: new discoveries not reconstitute therefore the oil that is extracted, for which the rhythm extraction will inevitably decrease.
ii. B. Cassen, "A Europe less and less European", Le Monde Diplomatique, January 2003. Weakening Europe is pursued by Washington through NATO: D. Achcar, "The born in the conquest of the East", ibid .
iii. A market that seems ever more firmly in the hands of the CIA, the "Plan Colombia" and the bombing of Afghanistan have much to do with this market (not counting its lush proliferate in the Balkans after the military interventions of the past decade) . The enormous interests in the opium trade in the nineteenth century were consolidated º (do not forget that the heroine is none other than the trade name of a product launched by Bayer in 1898). They were concentrated in the hands of the United States; were then managed by the French secret service when the country controlled Indochina; during the Vietnam War passed into the hands of the CIA, and were one of the fundamental components of the next Washington's strategy in Laos and Cambodia. The contradiction between these interests and the "war on drugs" are only apparent, as the latter and agencies that deal with it (like the Goddess) has the sole purpose of eliminating competition.
Angelo Baracca ,Jura Gentium, Journal of Philosophy of international law and global politics, ISSN 1826-8269.