Intercepted diplomatic traffic

Intercepted diplomatic traffic

pre

Subject: The Great China Project

From: Faisal Ahmed Yusuf

Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 01:57:45 +0400

Dear Amb. Mohamed Awil and Abdirahman Haji;

[...]

Brothers, as I was just talking to brother Syed Ali and Abdirahman, and having obtained now the consent, elderly blessing and directives of HE, the President, thanks to Syed Ali for that, it is about time to do the last few actions requested by CHEC.

The Preliminary delegate coming to Beijing for the meeting consist of:

Ministers:

1-Hon. Said Hassan Shire, Minister of Rebuilding and Resettlement. (Invitation letters, tickets, and hotel arranged already).

2-Hon. Abudlahi Yusuf Harare, Minister of Petroleum. (Please correct the name for me if Harare is just nickname and not the official third name)

Brothers, as CHEC requested, we need to officially request a meeting between our above mentioned ministers and:

1-With the Chinese Minister/Ministry of Foreign Affairs (international Cooperation liaison office)

2-With the Chinese Minister/Ministry of Commerce.

3-With the Governor of Export and Import Bank.

[...]

YE, additionally, brothers there are some of us who are coming there to Beijing to lobby for the project, in a very SILENT manner we will be working from the background and support the Ministers, President delegates, Embassy so that the mission ends with the anticipated successes.

Analysis of intercepted traffic

Note carefully the relevant priority ministers. Could there be a Somali oil rights for Chinese arms swap? Such oil rights would have to be renegotiated if the UIC controlled Somalia. China also enjoys TFG money for infrastructure reconstruction projects.

Other motivations for forgery

What other motivations are there for forgery? Anything embarrassing to Aweys and the UIC, which undercuts its alliances and internal cohesion, aids the TFG and its allies. A forger does not want to appear over the top, but still wants to inflict damage on the target. The damage here appears unreasonably mild for October 3 of this year. If the intended audience were internal to Somalia, it does not seem likely to weaken the UIC drastically: the time to unite Puntland and Somaliland against the UIC had largely passed by Oct 3. Perhaps Puntland and Somaliland had received the document much earlier and kept it quiet. If the intended audience were foreign, such as the US or Ethiopia, a forger would be expected to cater to those interests and their fear of radical Islam and terrorism.

A forger would have to make a plausible fake version of the document on paper, scan it into a computer, and write an English translation. This seems beyond the TFG's immediate concerns in October, as it struggled for its own existence; but not beyond that of its foreign allies such as the US. It is not implausible, and not without precedent: US spooks have a long history of leak fabrication.

But if the document is a forgery, one large question remains: the aim being to embarrass Aweys and the UIC, why was it not spread more broadly and given a more immediate date? If the audience were external, it should have been leaked further and made more use of by the US. But there seems to be no evidence of this. was the TFG trying to protect a UIC mole or protect a forgery from public scrutiny? If US intelligence was behind the forgery, was it worried about being caught out again influencing US domestic political opinion with its fabrications?

One cannot conclude with certainty that the document is genuine or otherwise. But based on the above analysis, it seems that either the document is genuine, slightly modified or is an earlier forgery recycled for the Chinese.

Conclusion

Today, the UIC's ultimatum against Ethiopian troops in Baidoa has expired and fierce fighting rages. Ethiopian forces have become involved, and there is potential for a wider regional war and great tragedy. If the UN continues in its present role, blindly supporting the TFG as its legitimacy erodes and its 'seat of government' is overrun, it cannot improve the situation. If the US continues treating the UIC as if it consists primarily of terrorists, it will lose all credibility (if it has not already) among Somalis who, whatever their misgivings, appreciate the stability provided by the UIC. The situation is far more complicated and interesting than any simplistic reading will imply.

If the leak is genuine, the secret order reveals insights into Aweys' thinking and strategy. If fake, it still says something about the intrigues of Somali and global politics. But whatever the case, Somalis, together with the international community, should seek to understand Aweys and the UIC, in order to clarify what they are dealing with, and establish a lasting peace and good governance in Somalia.

Notes & References

1. ↑ Hassan Barise, 'Mogadishu's modest Islamic leader', BBC News 12 June 2006. Joseph Winter, 'Profile: Somalia's Islamist leader', BBC News, 30 June 2006. `Somali Islamist orders holy war', BBC News, 21 July 2006. Mohamed Olad Hassan, 'Islamic Leader Urges 'Greater Somalia', AP wire, reported in forbes.com, 18 November 200
2. ↑ George Monbiot, 'Both Saviour and Victim: The film Black Hawk Down is helping to create a new myth of American nationhood, which threatens everyone on earth', ZNet, February 12, 2002
3. ↑ See the Conoco - Somalia Declassification Project, maintained by Prof Keith Yearman, Geography department, College of DuPage,http://www.cod.edu/people/faculty/yearman/somalia.htm
4. ↑ The BBC Somalia site contains some interesting personal stories and anecdotes.
5. ↑ See, e.g., Tatiana Nenova and Tim Harford, 'Anarchy and Invention: How does Somalia's Private Sector Cope without Government?' Public Policy for the Private Sector, World Bank Group, Private Sector Development Vice Presidency, November 2004.
6. ↑ In fact the head of the BBC's Somali service describes the Islamic courts as a popular uprising. See, e.g., 'Islamists claim Mogadishu victory', BBC News, 5 June 2006. Defections are noted in, e.g., 'Ethiopian troops on Somali soil', BBC News, 20 July 2006. Rob Crilly, 'Somalia' refugees stream into Kenya', Christian Science Monitor, 16 August 2006.
7. ↑ Ethiopia says Somalia 'a threat, BBC News, 28 June 2006. 'Ethiopian troops on Somali soil', BBC News, 20 July 2006. Mohammed Adow, 'Why Ethiopia is on war footing', BBC News, 21 July 2006. A figure of 6,000-8,000 Ethiopians troops is given in 'Fighting erupts in Somalia as peace talks falter, says Islamic official', AP wire, International Herald Tribune, 6 November 2006. 'Ethiopia 'ready for Islamist war, BBC News, 23 November 2006. The Ethiopian military build-up was then continuing, according to 'Somalia: Islamists take full control of border town', Garowe Online News, 24 November 2006. A number of 8,000 is given again in 'AP Interview: Somali prime minister says government is surrounded', Associated Press, 11 December 2006. The figure of 10,000 is quoted in Hassan Yare, 'Troops dig in as Somalia war fears grows', Reuters, 13 December 2006.
8. ↑ 'Islamists claim control of Mogadishu', aljazeera.net, 7 June 2006. This was denounced by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan: Saeed Shabazz, 'Annan: U.S. wrong to support warlords in Somalia', 29 June 2006, FinalCall.com. US warnings are reported, e.g., in 'Fighting erupts in Somalia as peace talks falter, says Islamic official', AP wire, International Herald Tribune, 6 November 2006; Scott Baldauf, 'Global jihad's new front in Africa', Christain Science Monitor, 12 December 2006. For the shooting of the Italian nun, see e.g., 'Italian nun shot dead in Somalia', BBC News, 18 September 2006; 'Somalia Islamists vow to punish nun's killers', gulfnews.com, 19 September 06.
9. ↑ See, e.g., Sahal Abdulle, 'Somalis rally against US peacekeeping plan', Reuters, 4 December 2006. Joseph Winter, 'Somalia's peacekeeping conundrum', BBC News, 7 December 2006.
10. ↑ Wikipedia article on Islamic Courts Union. 'AP Interview: Somali prime minister says government is surrounded', Associated Press, 11 December 2006. Gedi there accuses Islamists of having 3000 foreign fighters. 'Somali PM says Islamists preparing attack on govt', Reuters, 13 December 2006. Reports 4000 foreign fighters.
11. ↑ For Aweys' use of the phrase, see e.g. http://www.hananews.org/WholeArticle.asp?artId=6158. On Puntland/UIC relations, see e.g. 'Somalia: Puntland leader reaches deal with local Islamic clerics', Garowe online news, 18 November 2006. 'Puntland 'to fight Islamic Courts, aljazeera.net, 21 November 2006.
12. ↑ Aweys Osman Yusuf, 'Car Bomb Explosion Causes Casualties in Baidoa', Shabelle Media Network, 30 November 2006.